The April 28 federal election came with at least one shock to even veteran political observers: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in the Ontario riding of Carleton, a riding he has held for more than two decades.
As the results came down in the late hours of election night, counting revealed that Poilievre, who has led the Conservative Party since 2022, would lose to Liberal newcomer Bruce Fanjoy, who secured the seat with just over 50 per cent of the vote share.
Just a few months earlier, Poilievre 鈥� buoyed by former prime minister Justin Trudeau's unpopularity 鈥� was riding a wave of approval. According to polls from the Angus Reid Institute, 45 per cent of Canadians intending to vote Conservative by the end of 2024.
But on election day, the Conservatives garnered 41.3 per cent of the vote 鈥� a total that would often be accompanied by a majority government, but this time fell short of the 43.7 per cent captured by a resurgent Liberal Party under Mark Carney.
"If you had asked me before the election, 'Will Poilievre keep the seat?' I would have told you, 'of course, he will'. There's nothing to suggest to me anyway, except for the sort of anecdotal stuff that you saw online, that his seat would be in danger," said Justin Leifso, an assistant professor of political sciences at the University of Victoria. Leifso said he thought it was "remarkable" to see him lose what was thought of as a safe seat for the party.
One question now on the minds of many Canadians who assumed the Conservative chain of command would stay relatively similar regardless of the election results: What's next for Pierre?
"They're kind of in a purgatory here," said Leifso. "He lost the election after being up by over 20 points. That is embarrassing."
The inter-party dynamics of the House of Commons, which is set to resume in May, is now a peculiar situation. With the NDP's Jagmeet Singh losing his Burnaby riding as well, Canada's two main opposition parties will be working on Parliament Hill without a leader.
Despite the downfall, there could be a silver lining for both the Tories and Poilievre. The Conservatives receive a higher popular vote total than Stephen Harper's majority government in 2011, and unofficial results show they gained 16 seats.
Leifso said the Conservatives will be asking themselves the same sort of question the New Democrats will: what vision for Canada are we offering the country, one predicated on grievances, or a more broad coalition?
"And that's a really real question, and not everybody is going to be satisfied with the answer," he said.
Poilievre has yet to tip his hand on his next move. In the meantime, the newly minted Liberal government is gearing up for the 45th Parliament, and figuring out how to work with the other parties over the next four years.
"Number one, they're going to be addressing and confronting the United States, but I'm going to be keeping a really close eye on economic priorities," said Leifso. "And this government has already gotten rid of the retail carbon tax, they've already lowered the capital gains tax.
"Is that sort of market-friendly, free-enterprise approach to economics going to be dominating in this government? That's what I'm going to be watching for."
